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식량문제 |부동산노트

2009-12-02 12:25

http://blog.drapt.com/hate1009/755321259724318308 주소복사

올라기지 않는글...예전글 2009년초..

 

 

 

 

 

식량문제

[2009-03-03]

조회 : 3 추천 : 0 의견 : 0 평점 : 없음  

2009년 경제분야 예상 전망과 관련하여

 

2009년 2월말 현재 관심을 끌고있는 내용으로..

 

경제위기소식과 더불어 유가 농업 분야 이야기가 솔솔 나오는듯 합니다

 

2008년 40% 정도 상승하였던 농업관련 가격이 2009년엔 80% 까지 상승할지모른다는 전망..이 있습니다

 

농업관련 잇슈..원인은

 

1. 2008년 전세계 농업 생산량 감소했다(??  어느정도인지 찾지를 못합니다 아니면 영어 꼬브랑 글씨뿐이라서 해독불가.. 국내자료는  전혀~ 몾찿구있고 우리 언론사들은 뭐 하늦지.....)

 

2.농산물 생산기지 중 하나인 중국 북서부지역이 지금(2009년) 가뭄이 점점 악화되고 있답니다 

 

참고로 중국은 2008년 1월  쌀, 밀가루, 옥수수에 대해서는 사실상 수출을 금지하였습니다 금지원인에대하여서 표면적으로 식량안보 차원이라고 말하지만 일부자료에 의하면..

 

# 2007년 중국의 한발 피해면적은 3,990만ha이며, 3,740만톤의 수량감소를 추정하고 있다. 또한 수해면적도 1,200만ha로 집계하고 있는 등 한해와 수해 면적이 확대되고 있다.(요것 때문에 2008년 식량수출을 제한하였다는..)

 

#중국 국가양유정보센터에 의하면, 2007년도 대두 생산량은 한발피해로 전년대비 12% 감소한 1,400만톤, 수요는 유지소비 증가로 인해 4,700만톤에 달하고, 2008년도 수입량은 전년대비 15% 증가한 3,300만톤에 달할 것으로 전망하고 있다.

 

** 중국은 지금까지  우리나라를 비롯하여많은 국가에 식량을 수출하였던 국가였음을 기억한다면.. 당장 우리나라 두부 가격에 영향을 줄 요인이란 점을 아실것입니다

** 중국은 또한 전세계의 7% 밖에 안되는 경작지를 가지고 전 세계의 25%를 차지하는 인구를 먹여 살리고 일부는 수출을 하였습니다 어느 자료를 보니 밀 생산량이 가장 많은 국가는 미국이지만 밀 수출량이 가장 많은 국가는 의외로(?) 중국이란 자료도 있더군요

2004년 국내 기관에서 발표한 자료중에 중국의 대 농산물 수출과 수입 항목을 보니 밀 수출은 223만톤,수입은 42만톤으로 나와 잇더군요 다시말해 밀을 생산하여 고급품은 수출하고 저급품은 수입하는 구조로서 쌀 대두 보리 옥수수등 전반적인 주식용 농산물입니다 또한 중국의 전세계 채소와 과일 품목만으로  중국 농산물 교역 제품 점유율이 2006년 8% 10% 로 나와 있는점을 볼때 중국 의 감뭄등에 따른 전세게 농산물가격 영향에 큰영향을 주는 요소라 보입니다

 

# 중국의 주요 농산물 수출대상국가

* 중국 농산물 수입국가 상위 5개국 : 일본, 한국 ,홍콩,말레이시아,인도네시아  (아시아권 수출비중 69% 2006년)

  - 유럽 29% (독일 러시아 네델란드 영국 이탈리아순.2006년.)

  - 북미지역 11 06년

 

# 중국의 농산물 주요 수입대상국가

* 북미(미국) 29% 남미 26%(아르헨티나, 브라질)

 

 

 

 

3.전세계적인 가뭄 현상

 

* 전세계 식량 생산량 (미 달러화 환산금액)

 

 

 

* 2009년 현재 전세계 가뭄지역

 

 

 

위의 그림에서와같이 중국과 미국 아르헨티나등 주요 농산물(축산물:호주및 남미지역) 생산국가 지역의가뭄이 진행중이며 아프리카등지와 중동지역 역시 가뭄지역으로 나타나고 있습니다

 

*  중동지역  주요 밀 생산지역의 상황

 

 

 

 

 

4. 유로지역의 식량 가격이 이미 상승하기 시작 하였다는이야기도 들려옵니다

* 지난기사이지만 참고로 올립니다

 

출처: http://cafe.naver.com/joinsin

        http:// joins.in

 

글쓴이 하영수

 

The world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the top food and agriculture official of the United Nations warned Monday. (Mohammed Ameen/Reuters)

World food stocks dwindling rapidly, UN warns

 

ROME: In an "unforeseen and unprecedented" shift, the world food supply is dwindling rapidly and food prices are soaring to historic levels, the top food and agriculture official of the United Nations warned Monday.

The changes created "a very serious risk that fewer people will be able to get food," particularly in the developing world, said Jacques Diouf, head of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

The agency's food price index rose by more than 40 percent this year, compared with 9 percent the year before - a rate that was already unacceptable, he said. New figures show that the total cost of foodstuffs imported by the neediest countries rose 25 percent, to $107 million, in the last year.

At the same time, reserves of cereals are severely depleted, FAO records show. World wheat stores declined 11 percent this year, to the lowest level since 1980. That corresponds to 12 weeks of the world's total consumption - much less than the average of 18 weeks consumption in storage during the period 2000-2005. There are only 8 weeks of corn left, down from 11 weeks in the earlier period.

Prices of wheat and oilseeds are at record highs, Diouf said Monday. Wheat prices have risen by $130 per ton, or 52 percent, since a year ago. U.S. wheat futures broke $10 a bushel for the first time Monday, the agricultural equivalent of $100 a barrel oil. (Page 16)

Diouf blamed a confluence of recent supply and demand factors for the crisis, and he predicted that those factors were here to stay. On the supply side, these include the early effects of global warming, which has decreased crop yields in some crucial places, and a shift away from farming for human consumption toward crops for biofuels and cattle feed. Demand for grain is increasing with the world population, and more is diverted to feed cattle as the population of upwardly mobile meat-eaters grows.

"We're concerned that we are facing the perfect storm for the world's hungry," said Josette Sheeran, executive director of the World Food Program, in a telephone interview. She said that her agency's food procurement costs had gone up 50 percent in the past 5 years and that some poor people are being "priced out of the food market."

To make matters worse, high oil prices have doubled shipping costs in the past year, putting enormous stress on poor nations that need to import food as well as the humanitarian agencies that provide it.

"You can debate why this is all happening, but what's most important to us is that it's a long-term trend, reversing decades of decreasing food prices," Sheeran said.

Climate specialists say that the vulnerability will only increase as further effects of climate change are felt. "If there's a significant change in climate in one of our high production areas, if there is a disease that effects a major crop, we are in a very risky situation," said Mark Howden of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization in Canberra.

Already "unusual weather events," linked to climate change - such as droughts, floods and storms - have decreased production in important exporting countries like Australia and Ukraine, Diouf said.

In Southern Australia, a significant reduction in rainfall in the past few years led some farmers to sell their land and move to Tasmania, where water is more reliable, said Howden, one of the authors of a recent series of papers in the Procedings of the National Academy of Sciences on climate change and the world food supply.

"In the U.S., Australia, and Europe, there's a very substantial capacity to adapt to the effects on food - with money, technology, research and development," Howden said. "In the developing world, there isn't."

Sheeran said, that on a recent trip to Mali, she was told that food stocks were at an all time low. The World Food Program feeds millions of children in schools and people with HIV/AIDS. Poor nutrition in these groups increased the risk serious disease and death.

Diouf suggested that all countries and international agencies would have to "revisit" agricultural and aid policies they had adopted "in a different economic environment." For example, with food and oil prices approaching record, it may not make sense to send food aid to poorer countries, but instead to focus on helping farmers grow food locally.

FAO plans to start a new initiative that will offer farmers in poor countries vouchers that can be redeemed for seeds and fertilizer, and will try to help them adapt to climate change.

 
(Page 2 of 2)

The recent scientific papers concluded that farmers could adjust to 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) to 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees) of warming by switching to more resilient species, changing planting times, or storing water for irrigation, for example.

But that after that, "all bets are off," said Francesco Tubiello, of Columbia University Earth Institute. "Many people assume that we will never have a problem with food production on a global scale, but there is a strong potential for negative surprises."

In Europe, officials said they were already adjusting policies to the reality of higher prices. The European Union recently suspended a "set-aside" of land for next year - a longstanding program that essentially paid farmers to leave 10 percent of their land untilled as a way to increase farm prices and reduce surpluses. Also, starting in January, import tariffs on all cereal will be eliminated for six months, to make it easier for European countries to buy grain from elsewhere. But that may make it even harder for poor countries to obtain the grain they need.

In an effort to promote free markets, the European Union has been in the process of reducing farm subsidies and this has accelerated the process.

"It's much easier to do with the new economics," said Michael Mann a spokesman for the EU agriculture commission. "We saw this coming to a certain extent, but we are surprised at how quickly it is happening."

But he noted that farm prices the last few decades have been lower than at any time in history, so the change seems extremely dramatic.

Diouf noted that there had been "tension and political unrest related to food markets" in a number of poor countries this year, including Morocco, Senegal and Mauritania. "We need to play a catalytic role to quickly boost crop production in the most affected countries," he said.

Part of the current problem is an outgrowth of prosperity. More people in the world now eat meat, diverting grain from humans to livestock. A more complicated issue is the use of crops to make biofuels, which are often heavily subsidized. A major factor in rising corn prices globally is that many farmers in the United States are now selling their corn to make subsidized ethanol.

Mann said the European Union had intentionally set low targets for biofuel use - 10 per cent by 2020 - to limit food price rises and that it plans to import some biofuel. "We don't want all our farmers switching from food to biofuel," he said.

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